Abstract: Policymaking implies planning, and planning requires prediction – at least some knowledge about the future. This contribution starts from the challenges of complexity, uncertainty, and agency, which refute the prediction of social systems, especially where new knowledge is involved as a radical game-changer. It is important to be aware of the fundamental critiques, approaches, and fields such as Technology Assessment, the Forrester World Models, Economic Growth Theory, or the Linear Model of Innovation received in the past decades. However, agent-based modeling and simulation now provide new options to address the challenges of planning and prediction in social systems: this paper will discuss these options for STI policy with a particular emphasis on the contribution of the social sciences, both in offering theoretical grounding and in providing empirical data. Fields such as Science and Technology Studies, Innovation Economics, Sociology of Knowledge/Science/Technology etc. inform agent-based models in a way that realistic representations of science, technology and innovation policy worlds can be brought to the computer. These computational STI worlds allow scenario analysis, experimentation, policy modeling and testing prior to any policy implementations in the real world. This contribution will illustrate this for the area of STI policy using examples from the SKIN model.
Bio: Petra Ahrweiler is the Director of the European Academy of Technology and Innovation Assessment, a joint research centre of the Federal German state of Rhineland-Palatinate and the German Aerospace Center. Ahrweiler also holds a professorship for Technology and Innovation Assessment at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz in Germany. Her main research interests are innovation networks in knowledge-intensive sectors such as ICT and biotech, issues of science in society, responsible research and innovation, and policy modelling for complex social systems using methods such as social network analysis and agent-based simulation.
The researcher has long experience as principal investigator and co-ordinator of international projects on innovation networks, for example the EU-projects on “Simulating Self-Organizing Innovation Networks (SEIN)”, “Network Models, Governance, and R&D Collaboration Networks” (NEMO) or “Governance of responsible Research and Innovation” (GREAT). Ahrweiler holds various research awards and is member of a number of advisory boards in both governmental and academic organisations.”